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MeetChristians.com / Forums / General Discussion

No. 0     Original Topic:  the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  texascowgirl283   Gender: F   Age: 51   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 9:29 AM   Viewed 1241 times     
The newscastes are doing something i dont understand. They are showing how the hurricane Irma is heading northwest and their models has it going north not north west. so if its going northwest and not north then their models are a lie. the models head north but the storm is going northwest. northwest wouldl take it to alabama/mississippi line area. There models are false. why dont their models show northwest sicne thats how they say its headed. north and northwest are two different directions.
No. 1     Reply: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  texascowgirl283   Gender: F   Age: 51   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 9:32 AM     
they are forecasting a north track but they need to be telling and showing the northwest track not a north track beucase its not headed north its headed northwest. they are predicting it as though they are psychic instead of showing the models for how its actually heading. Its deceitful beucase they shouldn't show a north track until its actually going north
No. 2     Reply: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  texascowgirl283   Gender: F   Age: 51   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 10:09 AM     
it seems maybe the track changed? some say north and some say northwest. Both videos dated today. NO i watched an 8am update for today and its suppose to shift west. They all say something different.
No. 3     Reply: Re: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  Bullfighter279   Gender: M   Age: 55   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 10:32 AM     
texascowgirl283 wrote:

it seems maybe the track changed? some say north and some say northwest. Both videos dated today. NO i watched an 8am update for today and its suppose to shift west. They all say something different.


It is headed slightly northwest, more so later on.

No. 4     Reply: Re: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  Stormchaser   Gender: M   Age: 64   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 11:20 AM     
texascowgirl283 wrote:

they are forecasting a north track but they need to be telling and showing the northwest track not a north track because its not headed north its headed northwest. they are predicting it as though they are psychic instead of showing the models for how its actually heading. Its deceitful because they shouldn't show a north track until its actually going north


What you need to understand is that it is not an exact science, plus the fact that various other factors are involved (other pressure systems, the jet-stream, etc.) and as those other factors are changeable, they have changeable effects on IRMA.

The spaghetti models themselves do not exactly agree, for they themselves are done by different evaluations systems, and by different men, all who take in many factors in account, not all of them the same.

Yesterday I saw one newscaster state that the hurricane would soon be heading North, basically just because... He gave no real reasoning and sounded more like a brainless drone. On the other hand, the one guy I follow, and you yourself said you like, displays an amazing knowledge of the various factors that go into hurricane path prediction.

And even he admits that his own models can be off, though on the whole he's been very good, IMHO.
No. 5     Reply: Re: Re: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  Bullfighter279   Gender: M   Age: 55   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 2:36 PM     
Stormchaser wrote:

texascowgirl283 wrote:

they are forecasting a north track but they need to be telling and showing the northwest track not a north track because its not headed north its headed northwest. they are predicting it as though they are psychic instead of showing the models for how its actually heading. Its deceitful because they shouldn't show a north track until its actually going north


What you need to understand is that it is not an exact science, plus the fact that various other factors are involved (other pressure systems, the jet-stream, etc.) and as those other factors are changeable, they have changeable effects on IRMA.

The spaghetti models themselves do not exactly agree, for they themselves are done by different evaluations systems, and by different men, all who take in many factors in account, not all of them the same.

Yesterday I saw one newscaster state that the hurricane would soon be heading North, basically just because... He gave no real reasoning and sounded more like a brainless drone. On the other hand, the one guy I follow, and you yourself said you like, displays an amazing knowledge of the various factors that go into hurricane path prediction.

And even he admits that his own models can be off, though on the whole he's been very good, IMHO.


Exactly. They only do what they can based on the data they have and gather. They also go with what data is provided by the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve who actually fly into the eye of Hurricanes on a regular basis and drop instruments into the Hurricane and in the eye. That data is then made available to Meteorologists and Weather organizations which help plot the projected course of the Hurricane.
No. 6     Reply: Re: the direction of Irma and the models are in disagreement. why is that?   
By:  Survivor698   Gender: M   Age: 103   on  Sep 10, 2017 at 4:26 PM     
The models and exactly what is actually happening more often than not is never the same. The models are based on data available when the model was processed. Much potentially changes within minutes of the model being published.